The question of whether or not humans are alone has long been a fascinating subject for scientists and laymen alike.
While there has not been any concrete evidence confirming the mystery, scientists have pursued the debate by testing and theorizing. The famous Drake equation, which estimates the number of extra-terrestrial civilizations in the universe, has been used by many researchers.
A new paper by Adam Frank and Woodruff Sullivan, who both work at the astronomy department and astrobiology program at the University of Washington, shows that “the recent discoveries of exoplanets combined with a broader approach to answering this question has allowed researchers to conclude that, unless the odds of advanced life evolving on a habitable planet are immensely low, then humankind is not the universe’s first technological, or advanced, civilization,” reports The Science Explorer.
Frank and Sullivan expanded and simplified the Drake equation to calculate the odds that there has NEVER been another example of extra-terrestrial life among the universe’s vastness. Their results were astounding: the chances that there has never been another civilization in the universe is one in 10 billion trillion.
To me, this implies that other intelligent, technology producing species very likely have evolved before us,
Frank says. However, the pair also concluded that over the 13-billion years that the universe has existed, it’s highly probable that any existing civilizations out in space would have become extinct by now. Other civilizations are not likely to evolve until the human race is gone.
Frank and Sullivan say their findings can help humanity in the long run. “Our results imply that our evolution has not been unique and has probably happened many times before,” Frank explains. “The other cases are likely to include many energy-intensive civilizations dealing with their feedback onto their planets as their civilizations grow. That means we can begin exploring the problem using simulations to get a sense of what leads to long lived civilizations and what doesn’t.”
