Authors of a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change report that island populations will, come mid-century, suffer freshwater stress. Of 80 groups of islands studied, located near major ocean basins, 73 percent will be affected. Approximately 16 million people live in areas that are expected to be impacted by increased aridity. Until now, estimates of freshwater availability on small islands has been inaccurate because it failed to account for changes in evaporation patterns.
Anthropogenic climate change impacts evaporation patterns, therefore, even though some of the islands are expected receive increases in precipitation, it will have little impact on freshwater availability because it will evaporate. Another problem that island nations face regarding anthropogenic climate change is sea-level rise. Sea-level rise impacts freshwater availability because it intrudes into aquifers and renders them useless.
According to The Christian Science Monitor, the authors of the study investigated the misrepresentation of water resources on small islands. Water scarcity on small islands has been misrepresented due to the limitations of global climate models (GCMs) – limitations which caused this issue to be seriously overlooked, even by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Interestingly, The Christian Science Monitor reported that researchers worked through the limitations of GCMs by using techniques developed by civil engineering.
Because these countries produce so little in terms of waste, and use so little in terms of resources, larger countries should participate in alleviating the impacts of water scarcity.
The Christian Science Monitor explained that the researchers looked at large pockets of air above the smallest islands and analyzed data from those pockets that would impact evaporation patterns. The researchers looked at wind, temperature and solar radiation. From this information the researchers were able to assess evaporation patterns. According to The Christian Science Monitor, the small island nations are paying the price for larger countries’ contribution to anthropogenic climate change. Because these countries produce so little in terms of waste, and use so little in terms of resources, larger countries should participate in alleviating the impacts of water scarcity.